糖心视频


Global warming doubles risk of extreme La Nina event, study shows

La Nina
Sea surface skin temperature anomalies in November 2007 showing La Ni帽a conditions. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory

The risk of extreme La Ni帽a events in the Pacific Ocean could double due to global warming, new research has shown.

The projected twofold increase in the frequency of this potentially devastating weather phenomenon across the globe could lead to increased droughts in south-western United States, floods in the western Pacific regions and Atlantic hurricanes.

Furthermore, with around 70 per cent of these increased La Ni帽a events projected to follow immediately after an extreme El Ni帽o event, parts of the world could experience weather patterns that switch between extremes of wet and dry.

The latest collaborative international research saw scientists, including Professor Mat Collins from the University of Exeter, use state-of-the-art climate modelling to determine how global warming will influence the frequency of future extreme La Ni帽a events.

The findings are published in the leading scientific journal, Nature Climate Change.

El Ni帽o and La Ni帽a events are opposite phases of the natural climate phenomenon, the El Ni帽o/Southern Oscillation. Extreme La Ni帽a events occur when cold sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean contrast with the warming land areas of Maritime Southeast Asia in the west and create a strong temperature gradient.

The new research suggests that increased land warming, coupled with an increase in frequency of extreme El Ni帽o events, will mean extreme La Ni帽a could occur every 13 years, rather than the 23 years previously seen.

Co-author Professor Collins, from Exeter's College of Engineering, Mathematics and 糖心视频ical Sciences explained: "Our previous research showed a doubling in frequency of extreme El Ni帽o events, and this new study shows a similar fate for the cold phase of the cycle. It shows again how we are just beginning to understand the consequences of ."

The new research was led by scientist Dr Wenju Cai, from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and featured scientists from Australia, China, the US, France and Peru.

Dr Cai indicated the potential impact of this change in climate. He said: "An increased frequency in extreme La Ni帽a events, most of which occur in the year after an extreme El Ni帽o, would mean an increase in the occurrence of devastating weather events with profound socio-economic consequences."

More information: Research paper: " target="_blank">nature.com/articles/

Journal information: Nature Climate Change

Provided by University of Exeter

Citation: Global warming doubles risk of extreme La Nina event, study shows (2015, January 26) retrieved 5 July 2025 from /news/2015-01-global-extreme-la-nina-event.html
This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only.

Explore further

Researchers construct a model of impact for El Nino / La Nina events

603 shares

Feedback to editors