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Global rules shaping the treeline under climate change revealed

UNC-Chapel Hill study uncovers global rules shaping the treeline under climate change
Pictured is a section of the Picea schrenkiana treeline ecotone (43.5掳N, 90.1掳E, 2600 m a.s.l.) in Jiangbulake Scenic Are, Eastern Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang, China. Credit: Yuyang Xie

A new study from researchers at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill has revealed the key factors that determine where trees can grow at the highest elevations across the globe. By compiling the most comprehensive dataset of alpine treelines to date, more than 2,000 records worldwide, the research team uncovered a dual control system that explains why treelines form where they do, and which tree species dominate them.

The study, in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, shows that act as a universal ceiling that limits where all can survive. Once temperatures dip more than 35% below a species' thermal comfort zone, it can no longer establish as a "tree" beyond that point. However, acts as a filter, determining which species are able to grow at those upper limits.

"This study reveals how heat and moisture shape the treeline, offering new insights into alpine ecosystems under ," said Yuyang Xie, postdoctoral researcher in the department of biology at UNC-Chapel Hill and first author of the study.

To better forecast how treelines will shift as the climate warms, the researchers developed a new tool called the Relative Distance to Optimum (RDO) index. Unlike past models, the RDO index accounts for species-specific differences and measures how far plants are living from their optimal environmental conditions. This breakthrough will allow scientists to more accurately predict treeline shifts worldwide.

"Identifying the environmental limits of tree species helps accurately predict how alpine ecosystems will respond to warming," said Xiao Feng, senior author and assistant professor in the department of biology at UNC-Chapel Hill. "These findings are crucial for guiding conservation in under climate change."

The research not only advances fundamental understanding of treeline formation but also has direct applications for conservation. By predicting where treelines will move in the future, scientists and policymakers can better prepare for changes in mountain biodiversity and protect vulnerable habitats.

"This study greatly advances our understanding of the complex drivers of treeline formation at the global scale," Xie added. "It gives us the tools to anticipate how alpine ecosystems will shift in response to climate change."

More information: Yuyang Xie et al, Keys to the global treeline formation: Thermal limit for its position and moisture for the taxon-specific variation, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2025).

Citation: Global rules shaping the treeline under climate change revealed (2025, August 21) retrieved 29 August 2025 from /news/2025-08-global-treeline-climate-revealed.html
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