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A new study, led by federal agencies in collaboration with the University of Colorado Denver, shows that the whitebark pine tree—an iconic, high-elevation tree that stretches from California's Sierra Nevada through the Cascades and Rockies and into Canada—could lose as much as 80% of its habitat to climate change in the next 25 years.

The loss could have a cascade of effects, impacting wildlife and people.

The tree is a crucial food source for squirrels and grizzly bears. It also acts as a natural snow fence, holding snowpack in place and releasing meltwater slowly throughout the summer. That runoff supports entire watersheds, which farmers and ranchers depend on. The nearest whitebark pine to us in Colorado is in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in Wyoming.

"Whitebark pine supports biodiversity, and it helps people too," said Diana Tomback, Ph.D., professor at the University of Colorado Denver. "The canopies act as a snow fence and slow snowmelt, enabling summer water flow, which farmers and ranchers depend on."

The potential loss of whitebark pine habitat to climate warming is the focus of a study Tomback co-authored and which appeared earlier this month in the journal .

A shrinking range

Using U.S. Forest Service and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service data, Tomback and her colleagues modeled how rising temperatures could shift the tree's growth range across roughly 56 million acres in the U.S.

"Even using a conservative model where the temperature increases 2 degrees, we're looking at about an 80% loss of range," Tomback said. "That means whole communities will lose their whitebark pine forests."

The areas where whitebark pine is projected to survive are mostly in public lands, especially Wilderness Areas and national parks. While that shields them from development, it also limits the kinds of interventions allowed to help the species recover.

A tree under attack

The on the threatened and endangered species list. It has the largest range and a unique partnership with the Clark's nutcracker bird, which buries the tree's seeds in soil—effectively planting the next generation. Without the bird, the seeds cannot spread.

Tomback discovered this relationship in the late 1970s and is now recognized as a national expert. But the tree species faces multiple threats: hotter temperatures, invasive blister rust disease, increasing wildfires, and mountain pine beetle outbreaks, which have killed many pine trees across the West.

Research and new approaches to conservation

To map the tree's future, the research team used publicly available U.S. Forest Service plot data collected between 2007 and 2021 and climate variables from TopoTerra models. Their models produced detailed maps that can guide conservation efforts by pinpointing where the tree is most likely to persevere.

At the same time, CU Denver is also helping pioneer a minimally intrusive and cost-effective way to help restore trees in wilderness areas that mimics the Clark's nutcracker method of burying a small number of whitebark pine seeds (caches) throughout an area. Tomback, and graduate student Abbigail King, have been working with the non-profit American Forests and the Bureau of Land Management to pilot a program in Idaho that aims to help with reforestation. If successful, the technique holds much promise because it is one of the few acceptable restoration techniques for designated wilderness areas, including some national parks.

American Forests' collaborator on the project is CU Denver alum Elizabeth Pansing, who completed her Ph.D. in Tomback's lab working part on this problem.

"We're still in the early stages of research to see if this technique will work," King said. "I love that the field work I'm doing may be able to contribute to the regeneration of this tree and, through that, the other species that depend on it."