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A global shift towards healthier, more sustainable eating patterns could reshape agricultural employment across the world, according to new research from the University of Oxford's Environmental Change Institute (ECI).

The study, in The Lancet Planetary Health and led by Dr. Marco Springmann, Senior Researcher at the ECI and Professorial Research Fellow at UCL, examined how dietary patterns such as flexitarian, pescatarian, vegetarian and vegan diets would affect the number of people working to grow, raise and harvest food in 179 countries.

By combining detailed data on labor requirements for crops and livestock with models of global food production, the researchers estimated how dietary changes could affect the agricultural workforce. They found that adopting more plant-based diets could reduce global agricultural labor needs by 5–28% (equivalent to 18–106 million full-time jobs) by 2030, mainly due to lower demand for livestock production.

At the same time, around 18–56 million additional full-time workers could be needed in horticulture to produce fruits, vegetables, legumes and other plant-based foods. Overall, these changes could reduce global labor costs by US $290–995 billion per year (adjusted for purchasing power parity), equal to around 0.2–0.6% of global GDP.

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While these shifts could bring efficiency gains, the study emphasizes the need for policy and planning to ensure that transitions are fair. Measures such as retraining, redeployment and investment in horticultural production will be crucial to support workers and rural communities as food systems evolve.*

Dr. Springmann said, "Dietary change doesn't just affect our health and the planet—it also has a big impact on people's livelihoods. Moving away from meat-heavy diets reduces the need for labor in animal production but increases demand in horticulture and food services. Consistent strategies and political support will be needed to enable just transitions both into and out of agricultural labor."

Co-authors include Professor Michael Obersteiner (Director of the ECI), Dr. Yiorgos Vittis, an agricultural and food economist, and Professor Sir Charles Godfray (Director of the Oxford Martin School) at the University of Oxford.

The study used a detailed global inventory of agricultural labor requirements alongside a biophysical food-system model to estimate labor needs for 20 food groups at global, regional and national levels. It provides the most comprehensive assessment to date of how changes in diets could reshape employment in agriculture.