ÌÇÐÄÊÓƵ

About 15% of Italy's energy is produced by its nearly 5,000 hydroelectric power plants. In the Valle dei Laghi region, water flowing from the surrounding mountains supports local agriculture and the Santa Massenza hydroelectric plant, which powers the entire Trentino province. But as climate change accelerates, this delicate equilibrium is shifting.

After hydropower, agriculture is the second largest consumer of freshwater in Trentino, where wine is the region's largest agricultural product by quantity and value. But the region's recent dry years have threatened both electricity generation and agricultural irrigation.

For example, in 2023, extreme weather including a hot summer, hailstorms, and resulting fungal diseases led to a 13% drop in Italy's grape production compared to the previous year.

"These weather extremes bring a stress situation in the plants," said Stefano Pisoni, a local winegrower. "This can be seen especially in recent years, how so many diseases, especially cryptogams and other diseases, have become much stronger."

His family has been growing wine in Valle dei Laghi since 1852 and has been using biodynamic farming methods since the 1990s. This sustainable practice focuses on creating a self-sustaining ecosystem within the vineyard, without chemical fertilizers or pesticides.

"The feeling is as if the weather no longer has an identity, because now you are experiencing the weather with extremes too hot, too cold, periods too dry, periods too wet, as if the weather itself doesn't know what it's supposed to do," said Pisoni.

The Trentino province has several "irrigation consortia"—groups of farmers that manage water distribution. The Alto Garda Irrigation Consortium oversees 1,400 hectares, which require around seven million cubic meters of water in the irrigation season.

"Already, for over 20 years, we have chosen drip irrigation as our irrigation system because we draw water from a hydroelectric system," said Bruno Lutterotti, the head of the consortium.

He says that although drip irrigation has proven to be successful in the past twenty years, the more drastic effects of climate change mean that the system is reaching a critical moment.

Consecutive dry years have reduced hydropower production by 30% between 2019 and 2023. This has significantly decreased the share of renewable energy in the country's total production. It also meant that Italy lost its position as the world's largest wine producer that year.

That crisis led to the consortium starting an initiative to create a better model to manage their water better, says Lutterotti. Scientists of the EU research project IMPETUS want to support this initiative with a tool to strengthen the resilience of the territory and the community.

"The tool that we are developing within the demo site of the IMPETUS project is a 'decision support system,'" says Valentina D'Alonzo of the Eurac Research Institute. "It is helping the decision makers to understand the situation, to have future scenarios and to understand how to act."

Users can access a web application to view the data monitored in previous months. A 'forecast' section then displays forthcoming scenarios based on that data, and a 'projection' section shows what will happen if no actions are taken and how to deal with it.

The decision support system also features a simulation to generate forecast scenarios.

These scenarios consider varying weather inputs, dam configurations, and water diversion in the area. This helps decision-makers assess near-future impacts and plan interventions to prevent or mitigate system-wide risks.

The system includes a 'digital twin' of the valley developed by the project partner Waterjade. This hydrological model simulates the movement of water across the valley. Using meteorological data such as temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration, it mimics real-world processes such as snowmelt, soil infiltration and water balance.

The model helps to predict future changes of the water system in the area based on forecast scenarios from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

• 

• 

Building on the model's insights, possible measures could include taking extra care of water pipes while using new technology to find and repair leaks, protecting and using natural areas such as wetlands to store water and involving people to make sure the problems are understood and the community knows how to help.

From historic hydropower to modern drip irrigation, the Valle del Laghi has a history of innovative water management. But with climate change intensifying, new solutions are needed.