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Policymakers underestimate public support for climate action, researchers find

Researchers find policymakers underestimate public support for climate action
Distributions of responses to perceived willingness to contribute income to fight climate change. Credit: Communications Earth & Environment (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02536-2

New research by University of Oxford researchers from the Institute of New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, Sa茂d Business School and Smith School of Enterprise and Environment finds that policymakers, politicians and other policy officials greatly underestimate the public's willingness to contribute to climate action.

The findings come after recent clamors for a reset on climate policies from leading political figures due to a claimed .

Building on prior research that found that 69% of the general public support climate action, the , published in Communications Earth & Environment, shows that policymakers surveyed by the researchers estimated this figure at just 37%.

Co-author Dr. Stefania Innocenti, Associate Professor and leader of the Behavior and the Environment research group at Oxford's Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, said, "Policymakers' decisions can be influenced by their perceptions of public opinion. It is possible that their underestimation of how much the public cares about could limit their policy ambitions."

The research team asked 191 attendees of the United Nations Environment Assembly (UNEA) to estimate what percentage of the would say they are willing to give 1% of their salary to help fix climate change.

The attendees included politicians, individuals working at the United Nations and other multilateral institutions, including at least 24 active policy negotiators.

The researchers do not call for the public to actually contribute their income; however, asking UNEA attendees to estimate the percentage of global citizens that support action on climate change identified a mismatch in perceptions.

Dr. Ximeng Fang, lead author and Research Fellow at Sa茂d Business School, University of Oxford, said, "It's not just policymakers鈥攐ur findings suggest that individuals playing a diversity of roles at international environmental governance meetings could be operating under the assumption of a weaker public mandate for climate action than reality."

The fact that the delegates seem to underestimate global support for to a similar extent as the general public鈥攄espite higher personal engagement and greater climate expertise鈥攔aises questions for future research, say the authors.

Dr. Innocenti continued, "There are some plausible explanations for our results, which include the impact of news media and lobbying and the frequency of exposure to individuals with particular ideological viewpoints. While more research is needed before we can say for sure why policymakers underestimate the public on climate change by such a high degree, our results suggest the presence of misperceptions."

Co-author Dr. Joshua Ettinger, former University of Oxford DPhil researcher and now a Postdoctoral Research Fellow with the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication, said, "I hope our research encourages officials to be braver and pursue more ambitious climate policies. They have more public support than they may realize."

More information: Ximeng Fang et al, United Nations Environment Assembly attendees underestimate public willingness to contribute to climate action, Communications Earth & Environment (2025).

Journal information: Communications Earth & Environment

Provided by University of Oxford

Citation: Policymakers underestimate public support for climate action, researchers find (2025, August 5) retrieved 11 August 2025 from /news/2025-08-policymakers-underestimate-climate-action.html
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